Baccarat Strategy Tips

In Baccarat, two hands are dealt of two cards each, from a shoe, usually filled with eight decks of cards. One hand is called the Player hand and one hand is called the Banker hand. Any number of players can bet on the outcome of each hand, choosing either to bet that the Player hand or the Banker hand will be closer to nine. The strategy is less risky than Martingale or D’Alembert’s strategy, but still too risky. In the end, it doesn’t generate enough profits to compensate for the risk. Even with this strategy, you get into serious trouble if you lose 6 or 7 consecutive times. Results calculations Baccarat betting strategies.

04/11/2016

Baccarat is an elaborate coin flip game and you’re expected to hover around zero for most of your playing time, getting ahead of the game at times while falling behind at other times.

How to win baccarat? There are various strategies to play baccarat but now this will be a somewhat obvious trick: as soon as you’re ahead by a specified amount, get up and leave the table. Duh, right? Calling it quits at precisely the best moment – when you have some winnings in your pocket – is the only baccarat strategy that guarantees you’ll leave the table as a winner. It’s a simple way to win yet it will ensure you win baccarat consistently every time.

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In practice, imagine your bankroll for that evening for baccarat is 1000 and your bet is 20. If you set your goal to +100, you’ll leave the table as soon as that goal is reached and you won’t look back. At the point when you win 5 more decisions than you lose you’ll call it quits because you know it will go downhill from there.

During the course of the game you will use any of the other baccarat strategies for choosing a side or/and managing your bankroll, or you’ll just be having fun trying to guess will the Banker or Player win, and eventually you’ll enter a streak that will take your profits to +100. At that point it’s important to call it a day, as inevitably the game of baccarat will turn on you and start eating up your profits.

What to do if you’re in a losing streak, you ask? Well, just keep playing. With your usual stake. Since it’s a coin toss game, you’re inevitably bound to win your money back, provided the number of decisions is high enough – which means you should have a bankroll large enough to keep you playing for a while even in case of a bad run.

Bet365 deposit bonus can be used on baccarat – click image to visit

Baccarat Strategy Tips

The beauty of this baccarat system is that it’s perfectly possible to do it online. For this purpose, it’s identical to the land-based casino baccarat. Alright, that’s a lie. Online baccarat, whether it be mini baccarat or live dealer baccarat, is better because you get deposit bonuses, cashbacks and loyalty points.

It will be easier to use our cunning trick to make money on baccarat consistently if playing online. The bonuses will help. Near the end of the article is a selection of casinos that offer deposit bonuses which can be rolled over on table games, baccarat included.

Now when you know your strategy, here are five tangible tips and one bonus tip, all free:

#1 Don’t bet on Tie

Banker has a house edge of 1.06%. Player has a house edge of 1.24%. Meaning, you’re expected to lose 1.06 units for every 100 units wagered on Banker and 1.24 units for every 100 units wagered on Player.

These are very decent house edges compared to other casino games!

And now comes in the Tie. That bet comes with a house edge of 14.4%, making it a complete waste of money, and therefore you should never ever bet on it, and should exclude it from all your baccarat winning strategy calculations as if it doesn’t exist. For all practical purposes it doesn’t, as Tie is a push.

Tip: If you want to get an additional edge over your live dealer, you may wish to consider baccarat card counting. It isn’t that difficult to learn and it applies to the EZ Baccarat which uses eight decks and which you can find at some live casinos. More specifically, card counting may give the player an edge when playing the two side bets of EZ Baccarat, Dragon 7 and Panda 8.

#2 Banker is no better bet than Player

Banker wins slightly more often. However, winning bets on Banker are taxed with 5% commission in order to compensate for the higher likeliness of Banker winning, and that makes the Banker bet a worse choice when you did win, as you’ll win $95 instead of $100 on a $100 bet.

Banker wins 45.86% of the time, Player wins 44.62% of the time, and 9.52% of hands result in ties. Since ties push, Banker wins 50.68% of the time when there is a decision, and Player wins 49.32%. With 5% commission on Banker included, we get an equivalent of 48.15%. Consistently betting on Player will get you +2.4% better return than betting on Banker, when you consider one hand. Since there are slightly more combinations which result in a Banker win (roughly 2.76% more, when all numbers are factored in, Banker is a better bet by 0.36%. That’s when the entire range of trillions and trillions possible outcomes is factored in.

For all practical purposes, 0.36% is meaningless, and definitely not worthy of that old advice you can read everywhere on the internet, “bet on Banker”. Betting on Banker won’t magically improve your game and won’t make you a baccarat winner. So ignore that advice and consider Banker and Player equals.

There’s one exception to the above. In 5Dimes Bonus Casino, every Monday from 2pm to 8pm EST, Bonus Baccarat Zero offers increased payouts. Banker pays 0.9725 (instead of 0.95) and Player pays 1.027 (instead of 1) while Tie pays 9.5 (instead of 8 or 9). In this particular case, Player is a better bet. Click the banner below or click here to register at 5Dimes and play the highest-paying baccarat in the world. 5Dimes accepts all customers and deposits are made with Bitcoin and then converted to dollars.

#3 Check the odds

Not all baccarat tables are the same. Check the odds on winnings when you join a new casino. Player bet is always evens (1:1) and that almost never varies, but the commissions on Banker wins do vary. 5% is the standard, but there are places that offer less than 5%, and places that charge as high as 25% commission. Not that common, but do make a habit out of checking the odds on your baccarat table, whether you’re online or in a land-based casino. Just to make sure. The Bet365 live baccarat example on one of the above images has side bets. Of course you won’t take these, but it’s important to read the table before you put money on it.

Bonus Baccarat Zero at 5Dimes offers increased payouts – click to visit

5Dimes have the best possible odds on baccarat. Commission on Banker wins is not 5% but 4%, and Player pays out not 1 but 1.01. Also, Tie pays 9.4 to 1. These numbers are amazing and there’s no reason to play baccarat anywhere else.

Except…

Like we said above, on Mondays between 2 PM and 8 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST) it gets even better as Banker commission is cut to 2.75%, Player wins are increased to 1.027, and Tie pays 9.5 to 1. And that means that during these six hours every Monday baccarat is a game where you, the player, has the edge! Play baccarat at 5Dimes.

#4 Keep it short

The odds are against you, so playing for a longer time with a bigger number of iterations will inevitably eat up your bankroll little by little as the outcomes near their respective mathematical probabilities. The trick is to keep it short in order to benefit from a smaller sample of outcomes that might just go your way. For example, if you’re consistently betting on Player, you will – in smaller samples – find streaks of four or five wins in a row. In a larger sample the number of Player wins will tend to go towards 44.6% which is its mathematical probability.

#5 Take the bonuses

Needs no further explaining. Baccarat is among the best games you can play, with that low house edge, but the house still does have an edge. With a deposit bonus you’ll have the edge and you’ll most likely come out on top, winning a nice sum. Not all casinos allow their deposit bonuses to be used with baccarat. These do, and you should go through each of the casinos on the list:

Casinos are reluctant to let you rollover the bonus on baccarat, which is yet another sign baccarat is a good game to play. We’ve made a special effort to find bonuses which are rich (baccarat is a high roller game) and where baccarat contributes at least 20% to the rollover requirements.

Bet365 have New Player Bonus 100% up to €100 (20x rollover Bonus + Deposit) or VIP Bonus 50% up to €500 (30x rollover Bonus + Deposit). Baccarat will contribute 25% to rollover. US customers not allowed.

3Dice Casino have a 110% first deposit bonus up to $100, or VIP bonus 50% up to $500. Baccarat contributes 25%. No live dealers, usual payout. 30x rollover. US, UK and EU accepted.

There is also a bonus that’s for Bitcoin only and you can get it at Cloudbet. They’re giving a 100% bonus up to whopping 5 BTC, and the bonus is released in increments as you earn loyalty points. To earn 800 loyalty points and release 0.1 BTC from your bonus, you roughly need to stake 1.2 BTC.

Alternatively, to get even more in-depth information, read our dedicated baccarat bonuses article, learn more about baccarat card counting and baccarat pattern recognition, or see the list of all casinos tagged with baccarat bonus.

Bonus tip: Pronounce it right

Nothing will pronounce “amateur” like mispronouncing the name of a high roller game. Baccarat is pronounced with a silent “t”, “bah-cah-rah”, and not “back-a-rat”. Don’t back a rat unless you want to sound like someone who mispronounces Versace or Gucci. Baccarat is a high class game, treat it as such.

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Let’s get one thing straight – there is not one single surefire Baccarat strategy guaranteeing you wins. Anyone who claims they have cracked the Baccarat code is either a Trump supporter who yells at kids to get off their lawn or a self-righteous and self-proclaimed “expert” lacking the bankroll to back up him boasting his uncanny skill and technique. And although there’s not really one foolproof strategy per se, considering how much based on the chance the game is, there are some rules you can follow to ensure a pleasant time at the Baccarat table.

How to Play Baccarat – The Rules In a Nutshell

First and foremost – learn the mechanics of the game. Make sure you know the rules, how the cards are dealt and what their value is. It can be boring learning all the intricacies like when the player stands and when the banker hits but if you’re betting your money, you need to have a complete understanding of what’s going on.
Despite the fancy suited high-rollers we’ve come to associate with Baccarat, it doesn’t take the intellectual prowess and deductive reasoning of a British Secret Service agent to ace it. In fact, this is probably the most straightforward game you can play at a casino. Despite all the prestige surrounding the game, it’s really nothing more than a coin toss, so once you’re familiar with the terms and bets, you’re all good to go. To prep you up for a night at a glitzy land-based casino or a game at an online live table, here’s a crash course on how to play Baccarat.
Baccarat is played at large kidney-shaped tables that can sit 12 players and two dealers, plus a caller. In front of every player, there are two fields – Player and Banker. Each player places their bet before the cards are dealt and chooses whether their wager goes to the Player hand or the Banker hand. There is also a third option – Tie if the Player and Banker’s hands have equal value. The version of Baccarat played at American casinos is called Punto Banco which stands for Player and Banker. After all players have placed their bets, the Player and the Banker are each dealt two cards. The hand that wins is the one that’s closer to a total of 9. So, if the Player hand is 8 and the Banker hand is a 3, the winning one is the Player and all punters at the table who have placed bets on the Player hand, win. If the hands are equal, it’s a loss for everyone who has bet on Player / Banker and a win for all that have bet on a Tie.

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The Good, the Bad and the Player – Baccarat Bets to Make and Avoid

The first step towards winning is to avoid the Tie bet. Not that we don’t like it or anything but if you’re in it to win it, then wagering your money on a bet with a 14-percent house edge is not exactly a surefire winning strategy. Next, you need to know the odds – although it seems pretty straightforward having only two options to bet – either Player or Banker, there are slightly different odds for the two as follows:

  • Banker – 45.843%
  • Player – 44.615%
  • Tie – 9.543%

*There’s also a commission on the Banker bet so make sure you’re familiar with these before placing a wager.

The Banker Bet

With its higher odds, the Banker bet seems like the most reasonable choice when designing a Baccarat winning strategy. Experts will advise you to bet your money on it because it has been estimated that it will win more than 50% of the time – one of the reasons casinos add the 5% commission on it. Despite this being added, it’s still a preferred choice for many players – both newbies and seasoned pros who swear by it. Experts will also recommend that you keep betting on Banker until it loses as it has a better chance for winning streaks and that you wait for at least one bet after a Banker loss before switching to Player.
A good thing to always keep in mind is that hot/cold tables and winning/losing streaks are pure myths born by the gambler’s fallacy that in even odds bets after many consecutive outcomes of the same results, the opposite one is just bound to happen. There’s absolutely no mathematical or any other proof of such co-dependency so we advise that you don’t employ such practices.

OutcomeCombinationsProbabilityBanker Bet ReturnPlayer Bet ReturnTie Bet 8 to 1 returnTie Bet 9 to 1 return
Banker Wins2,2922,252,566,437,8880.4585970.435668-0.458597-0.458597-0.458597
Player Wins2,230,518,282,592,2560.446247-0.4462470.446247-0.446247-0.446247
Tie475,627,426,473,2160.095156000.7612480.856404
Totals4,998,398,275,503,3601-0.010579-0.012351-0.143596-0.048440

*Baccarat Odds

The Player Bet

Although the Banker bet is typically assumed as the better option, it’s a bit different when you’re using a strategy. Considering the commission on the Banker bet, it will be less lucrative when you’re using progressions. Let’s say, you’re playing Martingale – you are doubling your bet after every loss. After four consecutive losses at a 10-unit wager, you’ve lost 150 units (10 + 20 + 40 + 80).
You bet on Banker again and this time you wager 160. Finally, you win and the total payout is 304 units. That’s the 160 stake plus the 160 win, minus the 5% commission. The total amount wagered was 310 (10 + 20 + 40 + 80 + 160) which means that even though you’ve won, you haven’t covered your losses and due to the negative progression and the bet commission, your net loss is 6 units. A similar streak of losses while betting the Player hand would have given the expected 1 unit of profit, that is 10. Despite its lower odds, it’s the better option when playing with systems.

The Tie Bet

Baccarat is known as the casino game with the lowest house edge, however, the Tie bet can definitely tarnish its reputation. The Banker is recommended for its low edge of 1.06%, the Player is also a good option with a house edge of 1.26% and then there’s the Tie bet – standing at the staggering 14.4% house edge, defying logic and critical thinking. Naturally, it’s not a good call to place your money on a bet that has less than 10% odds and the possibility of paying back only 14 units per very 100 units wagered. That’s why the most logical thing would be to avoid it and play as if it doesn’t exist. A tie is a push, so your wager will just wait for the next round. If you’re following a streak and you get a Tie, simply don’t count it and keep playing accordingly.

Practice Baccarat for Free

You can test this experts’ advice in our demo game and see for yourself whether betting successively on Banker yields the highest winning potential. Play for free Baccarat by Pragmatic Play and use its features to hone your betting strategies. The game follows standard baccarat rules and has payouts as follows:

  • Player Win – 1:1 (Even Money)
  • Banker Win – 0.95:1 (with 5% commission)
  • Tie – 8:1 (in case of Tie, Banker Bet and Player Bet are Push)
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Played with eight decks, this version keeps history of the last twenty results indicating B for Banker, P for Player, and T for Tie. You have also options to rebet or place different bets before each new deal. With a betting range of 1 – 100 and 500 free credits, the game will also allow you to test out some of the progressive betting systems described below.

Using Betting Systems in Baccarat – It’s Not Stupid if it Works

Some practices used in other table and card games can also be applied to Baccarat. Both simple strategies like the D’Alembert and more sophisticated ones like the Labouchere system can serve your purpose of beating the odds at Baccarat. Positive progression systems like the Parlay and Paroli or negative progressions are also applied by players. To find out how you can use popular betting systems like the Fibonacci progression or the 1-3-2-6 system, read more details about Baccarat betting systems on our dedicated page.

Positive Progressions

Using a positive progression system means that you increase your bet every time you win and reduce it after a loss. Positive progressions are considered to be less damaging to your bankroll than negative progression betting systems. They are supposed to help you maximize your winnings if you go on a lucky winning streak and keep your losses to a minimum if you end up having consecutive losses. In theory, they do make sense and it is possible to win more money if you get a series of winning outcomes and soften the blow to your wallet in case of several consecutive losses. Positive progressions do not influence your chances of winning or losing a bet and are generally no risk at all.

Negative Progression Systems

Negative progressions are just the opposite of positive progression systems and can actually be harmful to your bankroll. In essence, they postulate that you should increase your wager after every loss and reduce it after a winning bet. At first glance, they seem logical and it’s easy to see why some gamblers will be tempted to try them. The theory behind them is that when you increase your bet, eventually your win will be big enough to cover your losses.
A closer look at how they work will reveal all the problems about such betting practice. There’s a very real risk that you will eventually run out of money, especially if you’re doubling your bet. Besides, there’s the bet limit of the house you need to consider – even if you have enough money to keep betting, the cap of the bet amount will prevent you from placing a wager big enough to cover your losses. Unless you’re very experienced and know exactly what you’re doing, such systems can be a recipe for disaster.

Flat Betting Strategy

Blackjack strategy tips

Unlike positive and negative progression systems where you have to alter the amount of your bet, a flat betting strategy for Baccarat means that you will be repeatedly placing the exact same wager in successive rounds of play, regardless of whether you lose or win. This approach is considered advantageous due to the lower risk in case of a losing streak. But how can you win more using a flat betting strategy? The best way to profit from the flat betting strategy is to determine correctly which hand will win, Banker or Player, with the accuracy higher than 50 percent. Using the flat betting strategy means that you will place the same amount of bet on every hand. While this is an effective way of minimizing the risk, it doesn’t guarantee big wins. It’s useful if you’re still getting used to the game and not very certain of the rules.
What are the benefits of using the flat betting system instead of the negative or positive progressions?

  • Flat betting offers higher chances of actually making a profit.Since you don’t double or increase your bet in flat betting, there’s a smaller risk of overspending. Not adding more money to your wager reduces the risks of bigger losses and presents a better chance of making a profit.
  • You can bet more. Flat betting gives you the option for more bets at a lesser value since you don’t double the wager neither after a win, nor after a loss, the way you would in progression systems. You can bet more money because you won’t make big losses due to doubled bets.
  • You can use it if you’re not very well versed in the rules. Flat betting is suitable for beginners because of its simplicity and lower risk. You don’t need to make calculations and you can apply it even if you’re not familiar with the rules like drawing additional cards.

If you’re interested in utilizing a betting system, flat betting is the only way to do it without the risk of losing more money than you can afford. Experts advise against using negative progressions and are sceptical about positive progressions as well, so it’s not a good idea to chase after other strategies if you can gain an advantage over the game by using the flat betting system. It doesn’t guarantee a sure win but it is an effective way to increase your odds if you manage to predict the outcome of the round. Even if you don’t, you don’t risk losing a lot of money.

RoundWin/LossBetResult
1win$1+ $1
2win$1+ $2
3win$1+ $3
4loss$1+ $2
5loss$1+ $1
6loss$10

*Flat betting example

Card Counting in Baccarat – Close to Impossible but Still an Option

Card counting has gained enormous popularity at Blackjack ever since Edward E. Thorp published his 1964 bestseller Beat the Dealer. It’s a method that has proven to be lucrative for players who have used it successfully to beat blackjack. But of course, it’s not just the players that caught on to it – the casinos are well aware of it and now blackjack tables are the most closely watched ones, with suspected card counters often being barred from betting or asked to leave the premises. But gamblers won’t let their practice go to waste so they turn to the next best thing where they can continue to hone their skills – Baccarat.
Yes, Baccarat card counting is a thing and might as well be the reason why Baccarat is likely to replace blackjack as the most popular casino game. Although theoretically, you can beat Baccarat by counting cards, the edge you get will be so small that it might not actually be worth your time, considering how much more complicated than card counting at a game of 21 it is. Still, if you have the time and dedication to try and learn it, we have the complete Baccarat card counting guide to help you.

Money Management Is Crucial

If you decide to use progression systems, you need to exercise strict control over your budget. Any system that requires you to increase or double your bet is a pitfall that you’ll have hard time getting out of. Whatever systems you’re using to play online baccarat at the best online casinos, be it the Paroli, Martingale, Parlay or any other, never spend more money than you set out to. Baccarat is a chance-based game, you can never predict with certainty whether you will have a winning or a losing streak. Don’t go chasing your losses and remember the golden rule – quit while you’re ahead.

Best Baccarat Strategy

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Plan your budget – decide on your wager and put a limit on the total sum you’re willing to bet. If you decide to make your wager $10, allow yourself a $200 bankroll and if you lose it all, simply walk away. Take time until the next session. It’s nice to leave the table a winner, but gambling is inherently unpredictable. The worst strategy would be to start chasing your losses or fall for some of the erroneous motivators behind gambling like:

  • near misses: being very close to winning but not actually winning and continuing to wager with the assumption that the next round is due to be a win.
  • the illusion of control: being able to roll the dice, spin the ball at roulette, or squeeze the cards in baccarat will give you a false sensation of exercising control over a game purely based on luck.
  • the gambler’s fallacy: the wrong and unsupported conviction that after a series of the same result or a losing streak, the next one will be lucky and with the winnings, you’ll be able to even out.

Having Fun and Staying in Control Is the Best Strategy

All of these are misconceptions that are actually the first signs of compulsive gambling. We have an innate aversion to loss but we have to accept that in a tight game like baccarat, the chance is the deciding factor. Stop playing when you’ve spent your budget, regardless of whether you’re winning or losing and give yourself some time before you go back to playing. If you’re winning, split your win in half and use only that to keep playing. Even if you lose it, you still walk away with a profit. Remember that gambling is an entertaining activity – enjoy the fun and social aspects of it and stay in control of your bankroll. Now, that’s a strategy that always works.

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